Hard 11 in Blackjack: Hit or Double Down?
The short answer: Double down against 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and Ace.
Every number on this page comes from an exact calculation of the remaining shoe, not from a printed chart. It is the same solver the Casino Trainer app grades your decisions against. The game is the common six-deck shoe: dealer hits soft 17, double after split, late surrender, blackjack pays 3:2. The hand was solved as 9-2.
Every dealer upcard at a glance
Results are the expected win or loss on a $100 bet, played perfectly from here.
| Dealer shows | Best play | Stand | Hit | Double down | Surrender |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Double down | −$28.52 | +$24.06 | +$47.67 | −$50.00 |
| 3 | Double down | −$24.84 | +$26.01 | +$51.87 | −$50.00 |
| 4 | Double down | −$20.48 | +$28.47 | +$56.94 | −$50.00 |
| 5 | Double down | −$16.07 | +$31.11 | +$62.21 | −$50.00 |
| 6 | Double down | −$12.06 | +$33.36 | +$66.72 | −$50.00 |
| 7 | Double down | −$47.90 | +$29.20 | +$46.03 | −$50.00 |
| 8 | Double down | −$51.14 | +$22.83 | +$34.67 | −$50.00 |
| 9 | Double down | −$54.10 | +$15.66 | +$22.53 | −$50.00 |
| 10 | Double down | −$54.05 | +$11.85 | +$17.56 | −$50.00 |
| A | Double down | −$59.82 | +$10.58 | +$11.02 | −$50.00 |
Hard 11 vs dealer 2
Double down. Played that way, hard 11 against a 2 is worth +$47.67 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth +$24.06, so getting it wrong costs $23.61 per $100.
If doubling isn't allowed, hit instead (+$24.06). The dealer busts 35.7% of the time from a 2.
Hard 11 vs dealer 3
Double down. Played that way, hard 11 against a 3 is worth +$51.87 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth +$26.01, so getting it wrong costs $25.86 per $100.
If doubling isn't allowed, hit instead (+$26.01). The dealer busts 37.7% of the time from a 3.
Hard 11 vs dealer 4
Double down. Played that way, hard 11 against a 4 is worth +$56.94 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth +$28.47, so getting it wrong costs $28.47 per $100.
If doubling isn't allowed, hit instead (+$28.47). The dealer busts 39.9% of the time from a 4.
Hard 11 vs dealer 5
Double down. Played that way, hard 11 against a 5 is worth +$62.21 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth +$31.11, so getting it wrong costs $31.11 per $100.
If doubling isn't allowed, hit instead (+$31.11). The dealer busts 42.0% of the time from a 5.
Hard 11 vs dealer 6
Double down. Played that way, hard 11 against a 6 is worth +$66.72 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth +$33.36, so getting it wrong costs $33.36 per $100.
If doubling isn't allowed, hit instead (+$33.36). The dealer busts 43.9% of the time from a 6.
Hard 11 vs dealer 7
Double down. Played that way, hard 11 against a 7 is worth +$46.03 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth +$29.20, so getting it wrong costs $16.83 per $100.
If doubling isn't allowed, hit instead (+$29.20). The dealer busts 26.2% of the time from a 7.
Hard 11 vs dealer 8
Double down. Played that way, hard 11 against an 8 is worth +$34.67 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth +$22.83, so getting it wrong costs $11.84 per $100.
If doubling isn't allowed, hit instead (+$22.83). The dealer busts 24.4% of the time from an 8.
Hard 11 vs dealer 9
Double down. Played that way, hard 11 against a 9 is worth +$22.53 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth +$15.66, so getting it wrong costs $6.86 per $100.
If doubling isn't allowed, hit instead (+$15.66). The dealer busts 22.9% of the time from a 9.
Hard 11 vs dealer 10
Double down. Played that way, hard 11 against a 10 is worth +$17.56 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth +$11.85, so getting it wrong costs $5.71 per $100.
If doubling isn't allowed, hit instead (+$11.85). The dealer busts 23.0% of the time from a 10.
Hard 11 vs dealer A
Double down. Played that way, hard 11 against an Ace is worth +$11.02 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth +$10.58, so getting it wrong costs $0.44 per $100. That is a close call: either play is fine in practice.
If doubling isn't allowed, hit instead (+$10.58). At a table where the dealer stands on soft 17 the answer changes to hit. The dealer busts 20.1% of the time from an Ace.
Does it matter if the dealer stands on soft 17?
Yes, for this upcard. Check the sign on the table; it is usually printed on the felt.
| Dealer shows | Dealer hits soft 17 | Dealer stands on soft 17 |
|---|---|---|
| A | Double down | Hit |
When the best play isn't allowed
You can only double on your first two cards (and at some tables only on 9, 10 or 11). Each double line above gives the play to make when doubling isn't available.
Practise it until it's automatic
Knowing the answer at a desk is not the same as playing it at the table. Casino Trainer deals you real hands, grades every decision against this exact solver, and shows what a mistake cost you.
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