Hard 14 in Blackjack: Hit or Stand?
The short answer: Stand against 2 through 6; hit against 7, 8, 9, 10 and Ace.
Every number on this page comes from an exact calculation of the remaining shoe, not from a printed chart. It is the same solver the Casino Trainer app grades your decisions against. The game is the common six-deck shoe: dealer hits soft 17, double after split, late surrender, blackjack pays 3:2. The hand was solved as 10-4.
Every dealer upcard at a glance
Results are the expected win or loss on a $100 bet, played perfectly from here.
| Dealer shows | Best play | Stand | Hit | Double down | Surrender |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Stand | −$28.88 | −$36.42 | −$72.85 | −$50.00 |
| 3 | Stand | −$24.65 | −$35.09 | −$70.17 | −$50.00 |
| 4 | Stand | −$20.26 | −$33.67 | −$67.35 | −$50.00 |
| 5 | Stand | −$16.05 | −$32.22 | −$64.43 | −$50.00 |
| 6 | Stand | −$12.04 | −$30.98 | −$61.95 | −$50.00 |
| 7 | Hit | −$47.50 | −$32.51 | −$67.61 | −$50.00 |
| 8 | Hit | −$51.31 | −$36.98 | −$76.29 | −$50.00 |
| 9 | Hit | −$54.29 | −$42.83 | −$87.28 | −$50.00 |
| 10 | Hit | −$54.09 | −$46.28 | −$93.18 | −$50.00 |
| A | Hit | −$59.98 | −$46.85 | −$95.92 | −$50.00 |
Hard 14 vs dealer 2
Stand. Played that way, hard 14 against a 2 is worth −$28.88 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$36.42, so getting it wrong costs $7.54 per $100.
The dealer busts 35.7% of the time from a 2.
Hard 14 vs dealer 3
Stand. Played that way, hard 14 against a 3 is worth −$24.65 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$35.09, so getting it wrong costs $10.44 per $100.
The dealer busts 37.7% of the time from a 3.
Hard 14 vs dealer 4
Stand. Played that way, hard 14 against a 4 is worth −$20.26 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$33.67, so getting it wrong costs $13.42 per $100.
The dealer busts 39.9% of the time from a 4.
Hard 14 vs dealer 5
Stand. Played that way, hard 14 against a 5 is worth −$16.05 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$32.22, so getting it wrong costs $16.16 per $100.
The dealer busts 42.0% of the time from a 5.
Hard 14 vs dealer 6
Stand. Played that way, hard 14 against a 6 is worth −$12.04 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$30.98, so getting it wrong costs $18.93 per $100.
The dealer busts 43.9% of the time from a 6.
Hard 14 vs dealer 7
Hit. Played that way, hard 14 against a 7 is worth −$32.51 per $100 bet. The next-best play, stand, is worth −$47.50, so getting it wrong costs $14.99 per $100.
The dealer busts 26.2% of the time from a 7.
Hard 14 vs dealer 8
Hit. Played that way, hard 14 against an 8 is worth −$36.98 per $100 bet. The next-best play, surrender, is worth −$50.00, so getting it wrong costs $13.02 per $100.
The dealer busts 24.4% of the time from an 8.
Hard 14 vs dealer 9
Hit. Played that way, hard 14 against a 9 is worth −$42.83 per $100 bet. The next-best play, surrender, is worth −$50.00, so getting it wrong costs $7.17 per $100.
The dealer busts 22.9% of the time from a 9.
Hard 14 vs dealer 10
Hit. Played that way, hard 14 against a 10 is worth −$46.28 per $100 bet. The next-best play, surrender, is worth −$50.00, so getting it wrong costs $3.72 per $100.
The dealer busts 23.0% of the time from a 10.
Hard 14 vs dealer A
Hit. Played that way, hard 14 against an Ace is worth −$46.85 per $100 bet. The next-best play, surrender, is worth −$50.00, so getting it wrong costs $3.15 per $100.
The dealer busts 20.1% of the time from an Ace.
Does it matter if the dealer stands on soft 17?
No. Hard 14 is played the same way under both rules.
Practise it until it's automatic
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