Hard 16 in Blackjack: Hit, Stand or Surrender?
The short answer: Stand against 2 through 6; hit against 7 and 8; surrender against 9, 10 and Ace.
Every number on this page comes from an exact calculation of the remaining shoe, not from a printed chart. It is the same solver the Casino Trainer app grades your decisions against. The game is the common six-deck shoe: dealer hits soft 17, double after split, late surrender, blackjack pays 3:2. The hand was solved as 10-6.
Every dealer upcard at a glance
Results are the expected win or loss on a $100 bet, played perfectly from here.
| Dealer shows | Best play | Stand | Hit | Double down | Surrender |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Stand | −$28.69 | −$47.22 | −$94.44 | −$50.00 |
| 3 | Stand | −$24.66 | −$46.52 | −$93.05 | −$50.00 |
| 4 | Stand | −$20.27 | −$45.77 | −$91.54 | −$50.00 |
| 5 | Stand | −$16.09 | −$44.96 | −$89.91 | −$50.00 |
| 6 | Stand | −$12.42 | −$43.79 | −$87.57 | −$50.00 |
| 7 | Hit | −$47.72 | −$40.93 | −$81.87 | −$50.00 |
| 8 | Hit | −$51.37 | −$45.35 | −$90.70 | −$50.00 |
| 9 | Surrender | −$54.34 | −$50.48 | −$100.95 | −$50.00 |
| 10 | Surrender | −$54.17 | −$53.45 | −$106.91 | −$50.00 |
| A | Surrender | −$59.93 | −$53.97 | −$107.94 | −$50.00 |
Hard 16 vs dealer 2
Stand. Played that way, hard 16 against a 2 is worth −$28.69 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$47.22, so getting it wrong costs $18.54 per $100.
The dealer busts 35.7% of the time from a 2.
Hard 16 vs dealer 3
Stand. Played that way, hard 16 against a 3 is worth −$24.66 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$46.52, so getting it wrong costs $21.86 per $100.
The dealer busts 37.7% of the time from a 3.
Hard 16 vs dealer 4
Stand. Played that way, hard 16 against a 4 is worth −$20.27 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$45.77, so getting it wrong costs $25.50 per $100.
The dealer busts 39.9% of the time from a 4.
Hard 16 vs dealer 5
Stand. Played that way, hard 16 against a 5 is worth −$16.09 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$44.96, so getting it wrong costs $28.87 per $100.
The dealer busts 42.0% of the time from a 5.
Hard 16 vs dealer 6
Stand. Played that way, hard 16 against a 6 is worth −$12.42 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$43.79, so getting it wrong costs $31.36 per $100.
The dealer busts 43.9% of the time from a 6.
Hard 16 vs dealer 7
Hit. Played that way, hard 16 against a 7 is worth −$40.93 per $100 bet. The next-best play, stand, is worth −$47.72, so getting it wrong costs $6.78 per $100.
The dealer busts 26.2% of the time from a 7.
Hard 16 vs dealer 8
Hit. Played that way, hard 16 against an 8 is worth −$45.35 per $100 bet. The next-best play, surrender, is worth −$50.00, so getting it wrong costs $4.65 per $100.
The dealer busts 24.4% of the time from an 8.
Hard 16 vs dealer 9
Surrender. Played that way, hard 16 against a 9 is worth −$50.00 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$50.48, so getting it wrong costs $0.48 per $100. That is a close call: either play is fine in practice.
If the table doesn't offer surrender, hit (−$50.48). The dealer busts 22.9% of the time from a 9.
Hard 16 vs dealer 10
Surrender. Played that way, hard 16 against a 10 is worth −$50.00 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$53.45, so getting it wrong costs $3.45 per $100.
If the table doesn't offer surrender, hit (−$53.45). The dealer busts 23.0% of the time from a 10.
Hard 16 vs dealer A
Surrender. Played that way, hard 16 against an Ace is worth −$50.00 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$53.97, so getting it wrong costs $3.97 per $100.
If the table doesn't offer surrender, hit (−$53.97). The dealer busts 20.1% of the time from an Ace.
Does it matter if the dealer stands on soft 17?
No. Hard 16 is played the same way under both rules.
When the best play isn't allowed
Many tables don't offer surrender. Each surrender line above gives the fallback play to use instead.
Practise it until it's automatic
Knowing the answer at a desk is not the same as playing it at the table. Casino Trainer deals you real hands, grades every decision against this exact solver, and shows what a mistake cost you.
More hands: Hard 15 · Hard 17 · Every blackjack hand · Basic strategy chart
Want the correct play named for you, hand by hand? Get Casino Trainer — virtual credits only, never real money.