Pair of 3s in Blackjack: Hit or Split?
The short answer: Split against 2 through 7; hit against 8, 9, 10 and Ace.
Every number on this page comes from an exact calculation of the remaining shoe, not from a printed chart. It is the same solver the Casino Trainer app grades your decisions against. The game is the common six-deck shoe: dealer hits soft 17, double after split, late surrender, blackjack pays 3:2. The hand was solved as 3-3.
Every dealer upcard at a glance
Results are the expected win or loss on a $100 bet, played perfectly from here.
| Dealer shows | Best play | Stand | Hit | Double down | Split | Surrender |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Split | −$28.56 | −$13.90 | −$55.11 | −$13.04 | −$50.00 |
| 3 | Split | −$24.56 | −$10.60 | −$47.18 | −$5.58 | −$50.00 |
| 4 | Split | −$19.72 | −$6.53 | −$37.59 | +$3.62 | −$50.00 |
| 5 | Split | −$15.48 | −$2.68 | −$29.13 | +$12.82 | −$50.00 |
| 6 | Split | −$11.45 | +$1.03 | −$21.12 | +$21.28 | −$50.00 |
| 7 | Split | −$47.47 | −$15.48 | −$89.18 | −$6.73 | −$50.00 |
| 8 | Hit | −$51.09 | −$21.98 | −$100.19 | −$23.01 | −$50.00 |
| 9 | Hit | −$54.39 | −$29.58 | −$106.92 | −$41.35 | −$50.00 |
| 10 | Hit | −$54.21 | −$33.90 | −$106.54 | −$51.79 | −$50.00 |
| A | Hit | −$59.75 | −$34.45 | −$118.27 | −$53.65 | −$50.00 |
Pair of 3s vs dealer 2
Split. Played that way, pair of 3s against a 2 is worth −$13.04 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$13.90, so getting it wrong costs $0.86 per $100.
The dealer busts 35.7% of the time from a 2.
Pair of 3s vs dealer 3
Split. Played that way, pair of 3s against a 3 is worth −$5.58 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$10.60, so getting it wrong costs $5.02 per $100.
The dealer busts 37.7% of the time from a 3.
Pair of 3s vs dealer 4
Split. Played that way, pair of 3s against a 4 is worth +$3.62 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$6.53, so getting it wrong costs $10.16 per $100.
The dealer busts 39.9% of the time from a 4.
Pair of 3s vs dealer 5
Split. Played that way, pair of 3s against a 5 is worth +$12.82 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$2.68, so getting it wrong costs $15.50 per $100.
The dealer busts 42.0% of the time from a 5.
Pair of 3s vs dealer 6
Split. Played that way, pair of 3s against a 6 is worth +$21.28 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth +$1.03, so getting it wrong costs $20.25 per $100.
The dealer busts 43.9% of the time from a 6.
Pair of 3s vs dealer 7
Split. Played that way, pair of 3s against a 7 is worth −$6.73 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$15.48, so getting it wrong costs $8.75 per $100.
The dealer busts 26.2% of the time from a 7.
Pair of 3s vs dealer 8
Hit. Played that way, pair of 3s against an 8 is worth −$21.98 per $100 bet. The next-best play, split, is worth −$23.01, so getting it wrong costs $1.02 per $100.
The dealer busts 24.4% of the time from an 8.
Pair of 3s vs dealer 9
Hit. Played that way, pair of 3s against a 9 is worth −$29.58 per $100 bet. The next-best play, split, is worth −$41.35, so getting it wrong costs $11.77 per $100.
The dealer busts 22.9% of the time from a 9.
Pair of 3s vs dealer 10
Hit. Played that way, pair of 3s against a 10 is worth −$33.90 per $100 bet. The next-best play, surrender, is worth −$50.00, so getting it wrong costs $16.10 per $100.
The dealer busts 23.0% of the time from a 10.
Pair of 3s vs dealer A
Hit. Played that way, pair of 3s against an Ace is worth −$34.45 per $100 bet. The next-best play, surrender, is worth −$50.00, so getting it wrong costs $15.55 per $100.
The dealer busts 20.1% of the time from an Ace.
Does it matter if the dealer stands on soft 17?
No. Pair of 3s is played the same way under both rules.
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