Pair of Aces in Blackjack: Always Split?
The short answer: Split against 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and Ace.
Every number on this page comes from an exact calculation of the remaining shoe, not from a printed chart. It is the same solver the Casino Trainer app grades your decisions against. The game is the common six-deck shoe: dealer hits soft 17, double after split, late surrender, blackjack pays 3:2. The hand was solved as A-A.
Every dealer upcard at a glance
Results are the expected win or loss on a $100 bet, played perfectly from here.
| Dealer shows | Best play | Stand | Hit | Double down | Split | Surrender |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Split | −$28.36 | +$8.17 | −$5.89 | +$48.37 | −$50.00 |
| 3 | Split | −$24.39 | +$10.32 | +$0.47 | +$53.04 | −$50.00 |
| 4 | Split | −$20.05 | +$13.01 | +$7.37 | +$58.07 | −$50.00 |
| 5 | Split | −$15.89 | +$16.12 | +$14.10 | +$63.13 | −$50.00 |
| 6 | Split | −$11.48 | +$19.03 | +$20.63 | +$67.81 | −$50.00 |
| 7 | Split | −$47.25 | +$16.34 | −$17.89 | +$47.41 | −$50.00 |
| 8 | Split | −$50.91 | +$9.39 | −$31.26 | +$35.95 | −$50.00 |
| 9 | Split | −$53.90 | −$0.08 | −$45.21 | +$23.76 | −$50.00 |
| 10 | Split | −$53.95 | −$6.62 | −$50.65 | +$18.37 | −$50.00 |
| A | Split | −$59.89 | −$6.36 | −$58.52 | +$11.56 | −$50.00 |
Pair of Aces vs dealer 2
Split. Played that way, pair of aces against a 2 is worth +$48.37 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth +$8.17, so getting it wrong costs $40.20 per $100.
The dealer busts 35.7% of the time from a 2.
Pair of Aces vs dealer 3
Split. Played that way, pair of aces against a 3 is worth +$53.04 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth +$10.32, so getting it wrong costs $42.71 per $100.
The dealer busts 37.7% of the time from a 3.
Pair of Aces vs dealer 4
Split. Played that way, pair of aces against a 4 is worth +$58.07 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth +$13.01, so getting it wrong costs $45.06 per $100.
The dealer busts 39.9% of the time from a 4.
Pair of Aces vs dealer 5
Split. Played that way, pair of aces against a 5 is worth +$63.13 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth +$16.12, so getting it wrong costs $47.01 per $100.
The dealer busts 42.0% of the time from a 5.
Pair of Aces vs dealer 6
Split. Played that way, pair of aces against a 6 is worth +$67.81 per $100 bet. The next-best play, double down, is worth +$20.63, so getting it wrong costs $47.18 per $100.
The dealer busts 43.9% of the time from a 6.
Pair of Aces vs dealer 7
Split. Played that way, pair of aces against a 7 is worth +$47.41 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth +$16.34, so getting it wrong costs $31.06 per $100.
The dealer busts 26.2% of the time from a 7.
Pair of Aces vs dealer 8
Split. Played that way, pair of aces against an 8 is worth +$35.95 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth +$9.39, so getting it wrong costs $26.56 per $100.
The dealer busts 24.4% of the time from an 8.
Pair of Aces vs dealer 9
Split. Played that way, pair of aces against a 9 is worth +$23.76 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$0.08, so getting it wrong costs $23.84 per $100.
The dealer busts 22.9% of the time from a 9.
Pair of Aces vs dealer 10
Split. Played that way, pair of aces against a 10 is worth +$18.37 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$6.62, so getting it wrong costs $24.99 per $100.
The dealer busts 23.0% of the time from a 10.
Pair of Aces vs dealer A
Split. Played that way, pair of aces against an Ace is worth +$11.56 per $100 bet. The next-best play, hit, is worth −$6.36, so getting it wrong costs $17.92 per $100.
The dealer busts 20.1% of the time from an Ace.
Does it matter if the dealer stands on soft 17?
No. Pair of Aces is played the same way under both rules.
Practise it until it's automatic
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