Pai Gow Poker Strategy: The House Way Is Usually Right
Pai Gow Poker is the game people play when they want to sit down for four hours on a small bankroll. About 41% of hands push — neither you nor the dealer wins — which makes it the slowest bankroll-drain in the building, whatever the house edge says.
The game
You get seven cards and split them into a five-card high hand and a two-card low hand. The only hard rule: the five-card hand must outrank the two-card hand. Setting them the other way is a foul and an automatic loss.
Then both of your hands are compared to the dealer's two hands:
- Win both — you win, less 5% commission.
- Lose both — you lose.
- Split — push. This is what happens 41% of the time.
The joker is semi-wild: it completes straights and flushes, and otherwise counts as an ace.
The house way
Every casino publishes the algorithm its dealer uses to set hands. You can ask for it, and you can follow it — and it is within about 0.15% of optimal, which for the effort involved is a very good trade.
The core of it:
| You have | Set it as |
|---|---|
| No pair | Highest card in the high hand, next two highest in the low hand |
| One pair | Pair in the high hand, two highest remaining in the low hand |
| Two pair (small) | Both pairs in the high hand, two highest singles low |
| Two pair (with an ace to play low) | Split the pairs — one high, one low |
| Three pair | Highest pair goes low, other two high |
| Three of a kind | High hand — except three aces, where you split an ace to the low hand |
| Straight / flush / full house | Keep it in the high hand, best two remaining low |
| Full house | Split it — three of a kind high, the pair low |
| Four of a kind (low) | Keep together high |
| Four of a kind (10s–aces) | Split into two pairs |
The two rules that matter most:
1. Split full houses. Three of a kind in the high hand and the pair in the low hand wins both far more often than a full house high and two junk cards low. This is the single most common error by new players — a full house feels too good to break up.
2. Two pair usually splits. Unless the pairs are both very small, or you can put an ace or better in the low hand, putting one pair in each hand wins more.
Why splitting works
Because you need to win both hands. A monstrous high hand and a garbage low hand loses the low hand almost always, which turns every win into a push at best. Balance beats strength.
The single question to ask when setting: what makes my low hand as strong as possible without making my high hand weaker than it? Not what's my best five-card hand?
The numbers
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| House edge, house way | ~2.84% |
| House edge, optimal play | ~2.7% |
| Push rate | ~41% |
| Commission | 5% on wins |
| Hands per hour | ~30 (slow) |
Combine the low hands-per-hour with the high push rate and Pai Gow costs less per hour than almost anything on the floor, despite an unremarkable per-hand edge. If the goal is table time rather than expected value, it's the answer.
Banking: some tables let players bank against the others, which flips the commission and the copy-wins rule in your favour and can bring the edge close to zero. It requires a large bankroll and the willingness to cover every bet at the table, so it's rarely practical — but it's the one place real skill exists in this game.
The side bets
Fortune, Emperor's Treasure, and the rest run 7% to 15%. The main game is 2.84%. As usual, the side bet beside the good bet is the expensive one.
Practising it
The house way is a fifteen-branch algorithm, and the branches you get wrong are the rare hands — three pair, four of a kind with a mid-rank, full house with a possible flush — which is exactly where you have no repetitions to learn from.
Casino Trainer implements the house way and an optimal setter, so when your split differs from correct it shows both hands side by side and prices the difference in expected value. The rare hands come up as often as you deal them, which is the point.
Virtual credits only, no real-money play.
The summary
- Follow the house way. It's within 0.15% of optimal.
- Split full houses. Always.
- Split two pair unless both are small or you can play an ace low.
- Never foul — the five-card hand must beat the two-card hand.
- Skip the side bets.
- 41% of hands push. That's the actual appeal.
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Want the correct play named for you, hand by hand? Get Casino Trainer — virtual credits only, never real money.